Greatest Tank Battles! (Who benefits most from McDavid?)

Like many of my hockey loving brethren, I participate in fantasy hockey leagues with varying degrees of success (lately I’m fucking Sharks, every year so close only to implode during the playoffs). But to that end in the leagues I participate in, most of the people I deal with are close friends of mine and we stay in communication a lot. It also helps we’re all more or less based in Toronto so we can argue and analyze  the minutia of our favourite local clubs (Maple Leafs, Raptors, Blue Jays).

Stick tap to my buddy Andrew who presented this idea; it makes sense to tank this season because a guy like Mcdavid is an instant rebuild. The argument isn’t without merit either. If you accept the idea that Sid Crosby is the best player in hockey today, let’s compare Sid’s numbers his last year in Junior versus McDavid’s (note this will only be up the point McDavid broke his hand, because he’s also a fucking warrior apparently):

	Crosby	McDavid
GP	14	14
Goals	9	14
Assists	24	28
Points	33	42
+/-	+11	+30
PIMs	22	19

Stats courtesy of London Free Press

Looking pretty good over a small sample size, you have to admit right? I guess my major issue is I take umbrage with the idea that any player can be a one man rebuild. Obviously if you’re a team in the NHL you have to have some talent on your team or it’s all for naught. Even a team that’s as bad as the Sabres (seriously click this Link, they are awful: https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/538739557903384577) has some talent to surround a guy like McDavid. Hell the Penguins and Blackhawks drafted sure things, but those sure things had some help.

But the concept is cool so at this point I’ll rank the teams at the bottom of the list that would benefit most from having a guy like McDavid, going from long term slough to instant contender. My criteria is as follows, you must be garbage in your division, conference and league wide to have a shot at sucking this bad. The number one ranked team is not necessarily the worst team, merely the team that I think rises to contender status the soonest based on current roster, current coaching staff and current management. The process is really unscientific so yeah, if you don’t like it write your own.

So without Further ado, here are your options:

7. Philadelphia: Current rank: 19 points,  6^th in the Metro , goal deferential -13.

Pros: Elite up front, prospect system not great but not terrible, new coach and GM so management is stable.

Cons: Management might be terrible, the entire backend is a tire fire, goaltending a huge question mark. Lots of bad players eating up lots of cap money.

Analysis: Why not rank the flyers higher? With Giroux and Vorachek tearing up the league, great secondary scoring pieces like Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds and a developing elite shutdown C in Sean Couturier. Up front they are decidedly elite, except for Vincent Lecavalier (signed for 4 more seasons at 4.5 million), R.J Umberger (3 more years at 4.6 million) and Zac Rinaldo (3 more years at 850k). The Backline is a tire fire. Andrew MacDonald (who made the Isles better just by leaving the team last year) is signed forever at 5 million a year. Mark Streit is over 35, also signed north of 5 million forever. Frequent press box visitor and not good enough for the Maple Leafs, Luke Schenn, 3.6 million. Goalies, Steve Mason has been better than he was in Columbus, but it would be really hard to be worse. Hard to win with barely better than Pavelec numbers, and Emery is decent in spot duty, but is no longer an option as a number 1 in the NHL. Management which was weirdly bad when Holmgren was running things (JVR for Schenn, Big money to Lecavalier) may be getting worse under Hextall (Hartnell for buy-out candidate Umberger, desperation signing for Del Zotto, no one to replace Timonen). McDavid makes an already elite offense more elite, but unless they move the secondary scoring for goalies and defense they’ll still be a non-competitive, Mcdavid benefits them the least because he isn’t a defenseman or goalie.

Carolina - Current rank: 17 points,  7^th in the Metro , goal deferential -14.

Pros: New GM and coach looking to put stamp on team, Staal Brothers play there, they have some sneaky good players in all positions (Tlusty, Sekera, Khudobin), Play in the metro with many other bad teams.

Cons: Still have Cam Ward who’s been terrible since he won a cup, Staal brothers might not be that good anymore, Alex Semin makes 7 million to sit in the press box, Tons of guys on the team who sucked on a terrible Leafs team over the last few years (Gleason, Harrison, Liles, McClement)

Analysis: Carolina is one of these teams where I’m not quite sure they’re as bad as their record looks. With Jordan Staal breaking his leg early, and their stubborn insistence to play a fading Cam Ward has hurt them. Thin at D, but middle of the pack possession wise. Unless they let a Staal go, where does McDavid fit in at first? They’re paying the Staals a lot of money to be 1-2 there, Carolina suffers the same debilitating issue as Philly does, the D and G aren’t good enough to make them contenders, even with McDavid in the fold.

Colorado - Current rank: 21 points,  7^th in the Central , goal deferential -14.

Pros: so much good youth; Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon. Holy shit could you imagine McDavid with that, they would be so incredible ahhhhhh! Also Patrick Roy is the coach and won a Jack Adams and Semyon Varlamov was lights out last year, totally worth not having Filip Forsberg bolster that incredible youth

Cons: They’re one of the worst possession teams in the league. Their regression is the single most predicted thing this season, and boy howdy has it happened fast. D is anchored by mediocre Erik Johnson, they signed a bunch of expensive, past their prime vets for leadership which as a Leafs fan I know always turns out well (Briere, Iginla and Stuart, so far not having the desired effect, can you have too much leadership?)

Analysis: Holy hell did I want to put these guys higher just because I think a powerplay that features Mackinnon, Duchene, McDavid and Landeskog would be the greatest thing for all hockey fans to watch ever. Varlamov is a really good goalie, even if he’s not doing as well as he was last year in which he was superhuman. The issue again is they are still brutal in their own end. They play a system (with a coach that won a Jack Adams no less) that has them buried on the shot clock every night (which should be impossible with the young talent on the club) and the D is awful. They have no one on D that seems to be able to get the puck going the right way. McDavid makes this team more fun to watch but until there’s a system fix or some competent D in this mix, he doesn’t grant them instant contender status

Arizona - Current rank: 21 points,  6^th in the Central , goal deferential -14.

Pros: Maloney and Tippett put together decent teams with no money, play an incredibly tight defensive system (until this year), two stud D-men in Yandle and OEL, Mike Smith is usually an above average goalie.

Cons: this team is bereft of scoring. Last season’s leading scorer was defenseman Keith Yandle with 53 points. Next in line was winger Radim Vrbata, who now rides shotgun with the Sedin twins in Vancouver. They win games with crazy defensive systems, shot suppression and getting piecemeal scoring from their entire lineup. This season Mike Smith has turned into a pumpkin, calling Tippett’s job security into question, Arizona is still a tough market, lots of uncertainty.

Analysis: Middle of the pack for me. They have some pieces that are necessary for contenders; Good Goaltending (Smith sucks, but Dubnyk’s numbers are ridiculous this season), two unreal D, a guy like OEL is a treasure and would as beloved as Karlsson if he played in the east. They have some good pieces up front (Hanzal, Boedker) and some weapons in the system (Domi, Gormley, Murphy). They really could use a guy Like McDavid, boost sales, make the market viable, and attract free agents. But unfortunately they’ve been pretty bad the last little bit, and I’m not sure McDavid is the cure all

Buffalo - Current rank: 18 points, 8^th in the Atlantic , goal deferential -34.

Pros: on a tear to close out the month winning 5 of the last 6, might have something in Enroth who’s been impressive in every game I’ve seen him tend goal in. Tyler Myers seems to be finding his game, been awful for a few years so they’ve stockpiling picks and prospects like what. Tim Murray has this team in greatest tank battle mode in the sense he’s stocked them with angry yet not really good vets who have something to prove

Cons: -34 goal differential? Holy shit is that bad. Did you check that chart I linked to earlier? Here is it is again; https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/538739557903384577 they are literally off the charts bad in possession. Team is well aware they are in tank battle mode, makes the coach hulk smash angry

Analysis: I really, really, really agonized putting the Buffalo outside the top 2. Holy shit does that team need something good to happen to them. And Nolan is a disciplined coach that tries really hard to turn this pile of chicken shit into chicken salad. But man, do his systems suck, but also his players suck. Not a totally destitute club, Cody Hodgson, Tyler Ennis, Tyler Myers. Prospect cupboard includes Sam Reinhart, Mikhail Grigorenko, Rasmus Ristolainen and a boat load of draft picks over the next few seasons. McDavid will help things along, but this team is not McDavid away from the Playoffs or contending.

Edmonton - Current rank: 16 points, 7^th in the Pacific , goal deferential -28.

Pros: RNH, Hall, Eberle, Perron all good players, bringing in guys like Fayne and Pouliot addresses the woeful possession issues they’ve had. Eakins hates the Media, which is entertaining if nothing else.

Cons: Sweet merciful crap where do I begin? The goalies that came in last year and stabilized everything last year have ruinously bad. Justin Schultz might actually suck. Perron after a 30 goal year last year has shit the bed hard this year, Eakins is on the hot seat already, and they’re talking about trading young pieces to stabilize things. Edmonton fans have started the #herecometheoilers hashtag which is my favourite thing to read on the internet after an Oilers loss. Mac T still answers to Lowe who is a goddamn moron, who thinks his winning as a bit piece on the Messier/Gretzky glory years’ teams means he’s capable of running a professional team.

Analysis: Sabres deserved this spot, expiring deals, prospects coming up so much going right for them to be awful and get better quick. The Oilers though? Much like Carolina I think they aren’t as bad as their awful, awful, awful record dictates. Among the worst PDO numbers in the league, they’re getting garbage support from two goalies that are so far in their careers statistically better than their numbers this year, and both keepers are still pretty young. They still have great prospects in the system right now. Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefblom. Maybe I’m naïve but I want to believe in this team, and since their weak down the middle, a guy like McDavid stepping in immediately to play with a superstar like Hall puts the Oilers immediately ahead of Calgary and/or Arizona in the Pacific. Doesn’t make them contenders in the Pacific yet, but Lord Almighty this rebuild has gone on long enough no?

Columbus - Current rank: 14 points, 8^th in the Metro, Last in the whole league , goal deferential -30.

Pros: Sergei Bobrovsky, Vezina winner in the goal. Murray, Wisniewski, Tyutin patrolling the blueline. Johansen is destroying the league this year (after missing camp no less). Dubinsky signed to a reasonable deal forever, Anisimov, Foligno, Atkinson, Jenner all coming into their own as pros. Turned buyout candidate Umberger into useful NHL player Scott Hartnell. Nathan Horton turned them into a viable free agent destination. Jarmo Kekalainen is apparently a genius.

Cons: They are clearly under the spell of a gypsy curse. We’re at the quarter mark of the season, the Blue Jackets have 142 man games lost to injury this year (for context the Coyotes had 141 man games last to injury the whole season last year). Among the Players hurt this year; Bobrovsky, Dubinsky, Jenner, Horton, Tyutin, Murray, you guys notice a trend between the names in the pro and the injury list in the cons? I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team that pushed a contender like Pittsburgh around last year’s playoffs falter like this the following year. But really they’re missing or have missed the best players on their team. Holy Christ have they been beset by awful luck.

Analysis: No team, and I really mean this no team would benefit more, and more importantly stinks bad enough right now to capitalize on McDavid enough to be a contender. Carolina, Philly and Colorado would certainly love the boost up the middle and would be able to toe to toe offensively with the best of them. But Columbus is the only club that actually has a pretty awesome roster, with great pieces in the system still, where McDavid not only makes them a playoff threat, but arguably the second or third best team in their division. McDavid/Johansen/Dubinsky would probably be the best 1-2-3 in the East right now. The pieces surrounding the Blue Jackets now include an above average D line and a Vezina winning goalie. It’s hard for me to think of a single team that sucks so much right now, that would benefit more grabbing McDavid than Columbus.

Note: all stat lines courtesy of TSN.ca, all Salary Cap figures courtesy of Capgeek.com, All prospect reports courtesy of Hockeysfuture.com